Sunday, February 24, 2013

Everth Cabrera and PEDs: what it means

Last week, ESPN's Outside the Lines reported that documents obtained from Biogenesis, the PEDs distributor in the Melky Cabrera and Alex Rodriguez cases (among others), indicated that five new players allegedly received products from the South Florida clinic in 2012.  Among the new names are two Padres: Everth Cabrera and Faustino de los Santos.

The more disconcerting player is certainly Everth Cabrera, who has a clear hold on the starting shortstop position for the Padres' 2013 team.  While it feels as if Everth has been around forever -- recall, he was a beneficiary of a lot of playing time in 2009 after being one of the Padres Rule V selections -- without much to show for it, he was actually worth 1.7 wins over replacement (according to Fangraphs) in just 115 games in 2012.  While projection systems are somewhat bearish on Everth Cabrera's 2013 season -- the most optimistic publicly-available system projects 1.7 WAR over a full season -- losing 50 games from Everth in 2013 still projects to have a non-negligible impact on the Padres.

The following table shows the projected wins above replacement difference, from numerous projection systems, if 50 games worth of Everth Cabrera were to be replaced by an equal combination of Cody Ransom and Logan Forsythe (as Bill Center believes would be the case):

SystemPAWARPA adjustedWAR adjustedPA subWAR subDifference
Steamer4430.93060.61370.30.0
Oliver4880.53370.31510.0-0.2
ZIPS4811.73331.21480.1-0.4

Depending on which source you trust -- note, I'm a huge believer in ZIPS -- having Everth Cabrera replaced by Logan Forsythe and Cody Ransom for 50 games costs the Padres roughly one-third of a win.  For a team projected to win between 74 (ZIPS) and 79 (CAIRO) games, every fraction of a game lost really hurts. Especially since a team with a low win projection making the playoffs is reliant upon some high variance event occurring. At just 26 years old entering the 2013 season, a big improvement from Everth stands as one possible source of a high variance event.  More-so than that average projected one-third win taken away by a 50 game suspension, losing 50 games from the huge season that is possible from Everth Cabrera really hurts the Padres.  According to ZIPS, Everth Cabrera has a 14% chance of producing in the top quintile among shortstops; Cody Ransom has just a 2% chance.

Additionally, having Everth receive an entire season's worth of plate appearances would allow the Padres to better evaluate their shortstop position heading into 2014; as the organization has little depth at shortstop -- the only legitimate shortstop prospect will begin the season in the California League -- this is one the more pivotal evaluations the Padres could make in 2013.  Losing 150 plate appearances and hundreds of innings in the field upon which the Padres can make an accurate evaluation is arguably more damaging than the third of a win they are projected to lose if Everth is suspended as a result of the link.  (After all, the odds the Padres win the World Series is just 0.3%.)

Fortunately, it doesn't appear that Everth will be facing a suspension.  As noted by Marty Caswell, producer of the Darren Smith Show on the Padres' flagship radio station, a suspension would require "indisputable proof" that he purchased PEDs:
Which begs the question: what are forms of indisputable proof?  Signed checks?  Visual proof of an exchange?  The jury remains out on what would be considered "indisputable proof".  The evidence that is currently known by the public is all that was reported by Outside the Lines: Everth Cabrera paid $1500 in March 2012 for whatever it is he received from Juan Carlos Nunez, the liaison between the player and the company.  ESPN's T.J. Quinn explicitly stated that these players (which includes Everth) were to receive shipments of PEDs, according to these documents.  Presumably, these documents aren't "indisputable proof" that Everth ever received or used any PEDs, or else we'd be hearing more regarding a looming suspension.

If Everth is suspended because there is proof he purchased performance enhancing drugs, it would be one of the first instances of a player suspension due to the purchase itself, and not its use.  (In fact, this table of all steroid/PED-related suspensions in baseball includes no such instances).  The new collective bargaining agreement implemented in 2012 made this subtle change that allows for a suspension even without a positive test.  Padres fans will probably agree that it would be remarkably "Padres" if Everth were to be the first player to ever be suspended under the "indisputable proof" clause.

At this point, all fans can do is sit back and wait while the investigation continues and the pieces fall into place. Hopefully Everth is not suspended; clinging to the very remote possibility of winning it all in 2013 is already difficult enough.